Bank of America earnings, Kalshi’s DC charm offensive, a United-American merger and more in Morning Squawk

Good morning, and happy Tax Day. As of last week, the average tax refund this year is more than 10% higher than the same time a year ago, according to IRS data.

S&P 500 futures are little changed this morning after the index posted its ninth positive session in 10 yesterday.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

All three major indexes climbed for a second straight day yesterday as traders remained hopeful for a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Tuesday’s gains — which put the S&P 500 near its all-time high — were boosted by a rally in tech stocks.

Here’s what to know:

• President Donald Trump said in a Fox Business interview aired this morning that the Iran war is “very close to over” and predicted the stock market will “boom” once the conflict concludes.
• A White House official told CNBC yesterday that a second round of talks between the U.S. and Iran is under discussion following unsuccessful peace talks over the weekend.
• The prospect of renewed negotiations sent oil prices tumbling. U.S. crude oil futures closed down nearly 8% yesterday.
• Investors have been focused on traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz, but CNBC’s Brian Sullivan explains in his new “Power Insider” newsletter today why the passage matters less than you might think.
• On the tech front, Oracle closed Tuesday’s session nearly 5% higher, extending the gains it saw Monday on its expanded deal with Bloom Energy. Shares of Nvidia rose for a tenth straight day. It’s the stocks longest win streak since 2023.
• Follow live market updates here.

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley continued banks’ positive earnings season this morning.

Shares of Bank of America rose 1.2% in premarket trading after the company beat expectations on both lines and reported its highest earnings per share figure in nearly 20 years, boosted by strong equity sales and trading. CEO Brian Moynihan will join CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” at 10:15 a.m. ET. Watch live on CNBC+ or the CNBC Pro stream.

Morgan Stanley also topped analysts’ estimates, sending its shares nearly 3% higher before the bell. The bank said revenue rose 16% from the same time a year ago, thanks to gains in its trading, investment banking and wealth management units.

Shares of Broadcom rose more than 3% in extended trading after Meta announced an expanded partnership with the chipmaker yesterday. The agreement included a commitment by Meta to deploy 1 gigawatt of its custom AI chips that are supported by Broadcom technology.

The companies also announced Tuesday that Broadcom CEO Hock Tan will not seek re-election to Meta’s board and will instead transition to an advisor role.

Meta revealed new versions of its in-house Training and Inference Accelerator chips last month. As CNBC’s Katie Tarasov and Jordan Novet note, hyperscalers have been building their own alternatives to the expensive and constrained chips from Nvidia and AMD.

As members of Congress introduce bills to regulate prediction markets, Kalshi is staging a charm offensive in the nation’s capital.

The company opened a Washington, D.C., office in January and recently launched an ad campaign in the city, featuring billboards that tout its ban on insider trading and following of U.S. law. As CNBC’s Justin Papp and Garrett Downs report, the ads are not only an effort to stave off criticism. They also appear to be aimed at differentiating Kalshi from its global competitor, Polymarket.

Members of Congress have introduced at least eight bills focused on reining in prediction markets this year. The sites — which one firm estimates will see roughly $1 trillion in volume by 2030 — drew intense scrutiny after incidents of suspected insider trading and bets on controversial issues, like the Iran war.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby reportedly pitched a merger with American Airlines to the Trump administration earlier this year, but experts are all but certain the tie-up wouldn’t land well with regulators.

As CNBC’s Leslie Josephs reports, a merger between United and American would produce the world’s largest airline. The resulting company would boast roughly 40% of domestic capacity, according to airline data firm OAG. Fares could also be driven higher by a tie-up, which would enable the carriers to better control capacity.

Still, the Trump administration has given signals that it’d be open to a merger in the sector. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau last week that there is “room for some mergers in the aviation industry.”

If he is confirmed by the Senate, Kevin Warsh is set to become the richest Fed chair in recent history. Here’s what his financial disclosure forms released Tuesday showed:

• Warsh’s approximate holdings: $135 million-$226 million
• Warsh and his wife’s approximate holdings: $192 million+

— CNBC’s Kate Dore, Sean Conlon, Lisa Kailai Han, Holly Ellyatt, Kevin Breuninger, Mike Sheen, Lee Ying Shan, Spencer Kimball, Brian Sullivan, Leslie Picker, Hugh Son, Katie Tarasov, Samantha Subin, Jordan Novet, Justin Papp, Garrett Downs, Davis Giangiulio, Leslie Josephs and Matt Peterson contributed to this report. Melodie Warner edited this edition.