China September exports beat expectations, imports rise at fastest pace since April 2024

China’s exports climbed at the fastest pace in six months in September, while imports logged their strongest gain in more than a year, even as a trade deal with the U.S. remains elusive.

Exports grew 8.3% in September in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, China’s customs data showed Monday, beating Reuters-polled economists’ estimates for a 7.1% rise and rebounding from August’s six-month low.

Imports jumped 7.4% last month from a year ago, sharply beating Reuters’ estimates for a 1.5% growth, marking the strongest level since April 2024, according to LSEG data.

China’s exports to the U.S. fell 27% in September, while imports declined 16% from a year earlier. Beijing’s imports from the U.S. have dropped by double digits year on year every month since April.

Beijing’s trade surplus with the U.S. in the first nine months scaled back to $208.6 billion, according to the official data, compared to $25.8 billion during the same period last year.

The double-digit declines in U.S.-bound shipments were largely offset by sharp increases in exports to other markets. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union and Africa surged 15.6%, 10.4% and 56.4%, respectively.

Tensions between Beijing and Washington have flared again in recent days as both sides traded barbs and ramped up respective restrictions, threatening to erode progress made after several rounds of bilateral trade talks this year.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened an additional 100% levy on Chinese exports and tighter export controls on critical software. Beijing, meanwhile, expanded restrictions on rare earth exports — though some don’t take effect until November — and broadened its “unreliable entities” blacklist to include chip consulting firm TechInsights. Authorities have also opened a fresh antitrust probe into U.S. semiconductor manufacturing giant Qualcomm.

The additional tariff on U.S. imports from China, if stacked on the current average tariff of around 55%, could take the total levies to above 150%, effectively causing a trade embargo, said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at political risks advisory Teneo.

“China would likely respond tit-for-tat, and bilateral trade would slow to a trickle,” Wildau added.

Both sides have threatened to impose charges on each other’s ships for docking at their own ports, set to take effect the same day on Oct. 14. Chinese levies will start at 400 yuan ($56) per ton, matching that imposed by Washington.

The U.S. makes up just 0.1% of global shipbuilding, compared with 53.3% for China, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

China Customs spokesperson Lyu Daliang said at a news conference Monday that Beijing hopes the U.S. will realize that it is taking the wrong approach by raising port fees and urged Washington to return to dialogue and negotiation.

Lyu added that new tariffs introduced by several countries this year have hurt businesses and disrupted the global economy, saying China remains committed to supporting multilateral trade.

The reluctance of China — the world’s largest importer of soybeans — to resume purchases of America’s crops further dimmed hopes for a trade accord.

Trump said earlier this month that he hoped to press the Chinese president at their planned meeting in late October to end the months-long moratorium on U.S. soybean purchases.

Chinese soybean imports climbed 13% in September from a year earlier, according to the official data, although details on sources of these crops were not immediately available.

China’s exports of rare earths fell 30% from the previous month to 4,000 tons in September. Earlier this month, Beijing tightened its grip on the critical minerals by adding five new elements to its control list and increasing scrutiny for foreign firms seeking access to the materials.

If fully enforced, the rules could have a major impact as they require global chip companies such as Nvidia, TSMC and Intel to obtain licenses from Chinese regulators to sell chips anywhere in the world, said Wildau.

Focus now turns to a Xi-Trump meeting at the end of the month, where the two sides can dial back the escalation, said Allan von Mehren, China economist at Danske Bank, who put the odds of such an outcome at more than 50%.

China’s commerce ministry said earlier Sunday that the U.S. should back off its tariff threats and urged further talks to resolve outstanding trade issues.

“Threatening with high tariffs at every turn is not the right way to get along with China,” the Commerce Ministry said. “If the US persists in its own course, China will resolutely take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

Customs vice minister Wang Jun said at the Monday press conference that stabilizing trade in the fourth quarter will be challenging because of the complex external environment and the high base effect of last year.

China will likely be compelled to deepen ties with other markets, said Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank, potentially offering greater access to its trading partners. “Nations wanting to engage with China are likely to find a more amenable export environment in the coming years,” he added.

The unexpected surge in China’s imports in September came after a year of weak demand caused by a prolonged housing downturn, rising job insecurity and a tapering of consumption-focused stimulus measures.

Despite the improvement, other closely monitored spending data continue to show deflationary pressure in the broader economy.

Total domestic tourism trips during the eight-day holiday that ended on Oct. 8 generated $113.6 billion in revenue, growing 7.6% from last year but slowing from the 8% rise during another holiday in May. The average spending per trip was also around 3% lower than in 2019 before the pandemic, according to estimates by Goldman Sachs.

Economists expect deflation in both the producer price index and consumer price index — due Wednesday — to persist in September, with the PPI falling 2.3% and CPI slipping 0.1% from a year earlier, according to LSEG data.

China’s trade surplus last month came in at $90.5 billion, up from $81.7 billion in September last year, according to the customs data.