Fever to fatigue? Pop Mart is actually happy that Labubu resale prices are dropping

This summer, the monster toy Labubu charmed the world with its cute and chaotic energy, commanding resale markups that would make day traders or Rolex flippers blush. One secret blind box edition was selling for over 2,000% above retail prices, according to Nomura. Last month, robbers in California staged a $30,000 heist.

Now, there are signs that the secondary market is losing steam — scalpers are panic-selling, watching prices crater by half or more. But Pop Mart, the Chinese company behind the phenomenon, said the crash was just what they wanted.

“Our products are made for people who really connect with the art and joy they bring — and we love seeing that passion. Making this art accessible is key for us,” Pop Mart said in an emailed statement to CNBC.

“If purchases are solely for ‘making a profit,’ this model will eventually crash,” the company added.

Ashley Dudarenok, founder of China research firm ChoZan, said Pop Mart previously let resale prices run to promote desirability, but is now pivoting to a steadier, more sustainable model.

“Labubu’s resale secondhand market significantly boosted the popularity of the toy,” Dudarenok said. “At the same time, it’s not very healthy long-term, because it alienates your real customers, long-term customers. And Pop Mart does not wish to be a one-hit wonder.”

Resale prices of Labubu dolls began declining after Pop Mart ramped up production to meet demand, the company told CNBC, following complaints about scalpers.

Pop Mart now churns out around 30 million plush toys monthly – 10 times higher than last year’s production levels, the Beijing-based company said.

But analysts point to cooling demand, particularly in mainland China and for older versions, as another factor.

“I think the scalpers are releasing inventory because they’re afraid that if they stock up too much, they can’t sell,” said Hao Hong, chief investment officer of Lotus Asset Management.

Jeff Zhang, an equity analyst at Morningstar, sees the secondary market as a barometer for Pop Mart’s hottest products. When demand outstrips supply, resale platforms become the venue for transactions – and a key gauge of where interest is headed.

Pop Mart’s shares have fallen 16% over the last month, but are still up more than 200% year-to-date, according to LSEG data.

Pop Mart does not profit from the secondary market; earnings come when shoppers buy directly. Still, the hype and perception of scarcity generated helped.

Bringing Labubu back to earth may be necessary, since the mass-produced toys aren’t luxury items by nature.

“A gold watch will last forever. I think Hermès will last for a long time… the doll won’t,” Hong said.

For now, analysts expect Pop Mart’s biggest hits like Labubu to remain strong through next year, helped by overseas expansion, particularly in North America and Asia-Pacific.

Pop Mart already operates a theme park and collaborates with international brands such as Uniqlo, Disney and Coca-Cola. The company is also investing in original animation, it said, to flesh out character personalities and backstories.

Given a product’s finite lifespan, companies need to capitalize on the buzz while it lasts, said Morningstar’s Zhang. Pop Mart is also expanding beyond the blind box strategy, which gave consumers the dopamine hit that helped fuel the craze but drew warnings from China’s state media about addictive effects on children.

The real test for Pop Mart isn’t whether Labubu stays hot – it’s whether it can strike again.

Dudarenok compared Pop Mart’s teams to “modern-day anthropologists,” poring over the hopes and struggles of niche consumer groups to create characters that resonate.

“Pop Mart is consistently digging and looking and curating. And again, it also took Labubu a few years. It wasn’t that it was created and then three months later it became an international sensation,” Dudarenok said.

“I believe that they will still surprise us with something cool in the years to come.”