A top White House economic advisor on Tuesday likened the odds that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will lead to higher prices to those of a meteorite striking earth.
“Rare events happen. We get pandemics or, or meteors or whatever,” said Stephen Miran, chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
But “there’s just no evidence thus far of it happening,” Miran said.
Anchor Melissa Lee noted that Miran was equating tariff price increases with extremely rare events.
“I don’t mean to be dismissive,” he replied. “All I mean to say is that prediction is difficult, and we should always speak in terms of odds and possibilities.”
“I don’t have a crystal ball telling me the future and neither does anyone else,” he said.
Miran also promoted a new report from his White House council, which highlighted the fact that prices of imported goods had fallen between December of last year and May, despite fears that Trump’s tariffs would hike prices.
Trump did not announce his “reciprocal” tariff agenda until April. And he has twice extended the deadline he set for countries to reach bilateral trade deals with the U.S. and avoid these highest rates.
While prices some individual goods have already risen as a result of tariffs, Trump’s policies have yet to spur the overall inflation that businesses and consumers feared.
Many economists say they still expect to see prices increase in the coming months. And they point to multiple reasons why those higher prices have not yet appeared.
One is the fact that Trump has repeatedly delayed implementing many of his most severe “liberation day” tariffs.
A second is the delay between tariffs and their real world price impact, while a third factor is the stockpiling that many companies did earlier this year.
Miran was asked on CNBC whether the White House expects the tariffs to raise prices in the future.
“‘Won’t it come eventually?’ said Miran, paraphrasing the anchor’s question. “I mean, sure, eventually, you know, a meteor is going to strike or whatever. But we’ve been waiting many months now and that evidence has just not emerged.”
The White House report analyzed two inflation gauges: the Personal Consumption expenditure Price Index, or PCE, which is followed by financial markets, and the widely tracked Consumer Price Index, or CPI.
“The results clearly show the price of imported components declining, starting in March, while overall prices were close to unchanged or increased slightly,” the report concluded.