Trump’s push to break China’s mineral dominance paves the way for a deep-sea gold rush

U.S. President Donald Trump’s critical minerals drive looks set to pave the way for a gold rush on the ocean floor.

Seeking to counter China’s mineral dominance, the Trump administration in April signed a sweeping executive order to fast-track deep-sea mining within U.S. and international waters.

The move is designed to help private companies access billions of tons of potato-sized rocks known as polymetallic nodules, which are rich in strategically important minerals.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a government agency, appeared to welcome Trump’s announcement, saying the executive order heralds “the next gold rush” and lays the ground for “a thriving domestic manufacturing industry.”

Washington’s unilateral backing for deep-sea mining is seen as highly controversial, however, with critics flagging legal and environmental concerns. China’s foreign ministry condemned Trump’s executive order, saying it “violates” international law and “harms the collective interests” of the international community.

Reflecting on the industry’s current state of play, The Metals Company (TMC) CEO Gerard Barron said, “It’s getting lively.”

TMC swiftly followed Trump’s executive order by applying for a commercial license to mine the ocean floor. If approved, the Nasdaq-listed company could become the first seabed mining firm to obtain a license to exploit minerals in international waters.

“The one thing that this administration offers is some certainty in direction, and I think that the one problem we have always faced is regulatory certainty — and that’s not available at the ISA. But its abundantly available in the USA,” Barron told CNBC by video call.

In response to TMC’s application for a license to mine under U.S. domestic law, the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a little-known U.N. regulator that oversees deep-sea mining, said that it remains the only legal authority to regulate seabed mining activities in international waters.

And while companies are “free to express their views,” the ISA warned that any attempt to bypass this process “would constitute a violation of international law.”

ISA negotiators have long sought to devise a rulebook to regulate the exploitation and extraction of polymetallic nodules and other deposits on the ocean floor — before mining activity begins.

ISA Secretary-General Leticia Carvalho told CNBC last year that it was feasible for member states to agree on some form of regulation by the end of 2025.

TMC’s Barron disputed the ISA’s timeline for a mining code, saying there is no chance of an international agreement this year. He described investor interest following Trump’s executive order as “like night and day” for the company, with TMC currently ramping up efforts to get production ready.

“We’re believers. We were confident that we would eventually resolve this one way or another. But the investor interest since the executive order … has been phenomenal,” Barron said.

The practice of deep-sea mining involves using machinery to remove minerals and metals — such as cobalt, nickel, copper and manganese — from the seabed. The end-use of these minerals is wide-ranging and includes applications for the defense and green technology sectors.

Indeed, alongside shoring up supply chain security and manufacturing, advocates say, seabed mining could help to reduce the reliance of large mining operations on land.

Scientists, meanwhile, have warned that the full environmental impacts of seabed mining are hard to predict, while environmental campaign groups say the practice cannot be done sustainably.

TMC’s Barron, who recently testified at a U.S. congressional hearing, said the company intends to submit an environmental impact statement to the regulator, noting that it “conclusively points to the fact that we can do this safely and we can minimize impact.”

“The thing that people have missed is that there is zero chance that this will not happen,” Barron said. He added that the company is confident it will receive a permit to commercially mine the seabed before the end of the year.

Maria Jose (Majo) Valverde, biodiversity and sustainability analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said U.S. support for deep-sea mining could have profound geopolitical repercussions.

“I think this order will shake up the geopolitical boardgame. The U.S. has already done that in the climate space by exiting the Paris Agreement and I think that this is now merging into wider environmental processes,” Valverde said.

Notably, Trump’s executive order could incentivize ISA member states to finally reach a deal to formalize a mining code, Valverde said, particularly given that the U.N. has now effectively been put on notice to avoid a race to the bottom of the ocean.

“If you have the U.S. pursue this ‘go at it alone’ strategy, other countries may coordinate, for example, to either avoid the purchase of U.S. extracted minerals or negotiate more favorable deals among themselves — especially China, because they are really active in the ISA negotiations,” Valverde said.

Trump’s executive order “has expanded the panorama of options that countries could pursue, especially now that multilateralism is eroding and that we’re in a G-zero environment where countries only look to their own backyard — and they get more creative on what they are willing to consider,” she added.

Danielle Fugere, president and chief counsel at As You Sow, a shareholder advocacy group, said the U.S. non-profit is “deeply concerned” by Trump’s executive order.

“Whatever the U.S. does, there needs to be regulatory review. For Trump to issue an executive order that demands that we go forward with this immediately — that’s problematic,” Fugere told CNBC by video call.

“I think this creates a storm. China is saying this is illegal and the law of the sea should govern deep-sea resources that should benefit all mankind, and that in fact is what the law of the sea requires. Yet, here is the U.S. saying it is entitled to plunder the deep-sea resources,” she added.

To be sure, the U.S. is one of few countries not to have ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

As You Sow, which supports a deep-sea mining moratorium, said Trump’s order means ISA member states are now under intense pressure to come up with a regulatory framework for how — and if — deep-sea mining should go forward.

“We are very concerned about this executive order and the impact it’s likely to have on these organisms, on these resources and fishing nations who depend on the oceans for their livelihoods,” Fugere said.