President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office are the worst for the stock market for the start of a president’s four-year term since the 1970s.
The S&P 500’s 7.9% drop from when Trump was sworn into office on Jan. 20 through the April 25 close, is the second worst first 100-day performance going back to the beginning of President Richard Nixon’s second term, according to CFRA Research. Nixon saw the S&P 500 tumble 9.9% in 1973, after a series of economic measures he took to combat inflation resulted in the 1973 to 1975 recession. Nixon would later resign in 1974 because of the Watergate scandal.
On average, the S&P 500 rises 2.1% in the first 100 days for any president, in data of post-election years going from 1944 through 2020, CFRA showed.
The severity of the stock drawdown to start Trump’s presidency stands in marked contrast to the initial euphoria following his November election victory, when the S&P 500 surged to all-time highs amid confidence the former businessman would bring about much hoped for tax cuts and deregulation. From Election Day to Inauguration Day, the S&P 500 advanced 3.7%, CFRA data shows.
The rally sputtered and then dove sharply as Trump used his early days in office to push forth other campaign promises that investors had taken less seriously, particularly an aggressive approach to trade that many worry will raise inflation and push the U.S. into a recession.
In April, the S&P 500 took a nosedive, losing 10% in just two days and briefly entering bear market territory, following Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff announcement. Trump then walked back part of that announcement, giving countries a 90-day pause to renegotiate deals, that soothed some of investors’ concerns. Many worry there’s further downside ahead.
“Everyone’s looking for this bottom here,” said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. “I’m still thinking it’s a bear market rally, a near term bounce kind of thing. I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet, with the lack of clarity and continuing uncertainty in Washington.”
The S&P 500, which reached a closing high of 6,144.15 on Feb. 19, closed Friday at 5,525.21. It has erased all post-election gains from November.
To be sure, Trump has two more trading days to cut his losses. His first 100 days technically end on Tuesday. If the S&P 500 rallies this week, he could get close to the third worst start — the 6.9% decline during the first 100 days of George W. Bush in 2001.
