U.K. retail sales better than expected
U.K. retail sales volumes rose for the third consecutive month in March by 0.4%, beating gloomy expectations of a 0.3% decline.
Clothing and outdoor retailers said that good weather had boosted sales, according to the Office for National Statistics, offsetting a decline in supermarket sales.
However, some economists expect the positive trend to be short-lived.
“While today’s retail sales data confirmed that households spent a bit more freely than expected in Q1, that may not last,” said Alex Kerr, economist at Capital Economics.
“The decline in consumer confidence to a 17-month low, in part due to the uncertainty stemming from the U.S. tariff regime and in part due to rising utility and water bills, is consistent with the annual growth rate of retail sales collapsing from 2.6% in March to around -1.0% in April.”
“If the drop in confidence is sustained, consumer spending growth may be a bit softer than our forecast of 1.4% in 2025,” Kerr added.
Others were cautious, but positive.
“Now the question is how much rising uncertainty will hit consumers. We think the central case is for only a modest hit and would downplay the drop in confidence this morning,” said Rob Wood, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Uncertainty will crimp spending, but there is only so much that U.K. consumers care about U.S. tariffs on China.”
— Ganesh Rao
Jet engine maker Safran beats expectations amid trade war uncertainty
France-based jet engine maker Safran beat investors’ expectations for the first quarter and offered “strong confidence” in achieving its full-year targets amid a U.S.-led global trade war.
Safran reported 7.3 billion euros in first-quarter 2025 sales, rising by 14% on an organic basis and beating expectations of a 12.6% hike, according to FactSet’s analysts’ consensus data.
The stock has added 5% so far this year.
The company, known for producing propulsion systems for airplanes, helicopters, and missiles, is expected to be exposed to any change in the global tariff regime.
“While global trade discussions are fluid, Safran is actively working to mitigate the economic impact from tariffs, notablyby adapting supply flows and engaging with customers,” said Olivier Andries, chief executive of Safran, in a statement. “Actual performance and robust momentum in both the civil aerospace and defense sectors reinforce our strong confidence in achieving our guidance, excluding any potential impact of tariffs, which it would be premature to quantify at this stage.”
RBC analysts said they expect Safran’s management to provide some guidance on “any initial estimate of the magnitude of the tariff impact.”
— Ganesh Rao
China may suspend its 125% tariffs on some U.S. goods: Bloomberg
China is mulling the suspension of its 125% tariff on certain U.S. goods, Bloomberg reported citing sources familiar with the matter.
The government is considering scrapping the extra duties on items including medical equipment and industrial chemicals such as ethane. Authorities are also reportedly debating scrapping the tariff on aircraft leases.
The offshore yuan strengthened slightly to 7.284 against the greenback.
—Lee Ying Shan
Upcoming news flow will drive short-term swings amid a market with elevated volatility, UBS says
News flow will continue to dictate market moves — at least in the short term, UBS wrote in a Thursday note.
“We expect volatility to remain elevated as negotiations continue, but recent developments suggest a less aggressive approach to resolving trade disputes,” the firm said. “The market’s strong rebound reflects growing confidence that the most adverse outcome can be avoided, though upcoming news flow will likely continue to drive short-term swings.”
— Lisa Kailai Han
S&P 500 futures open higher
S&P 500 futures rose on Thursday night following another winning session for stocks.
Futures linked to the broad market index traded 0.2% higher just after 6 p.m. ET, and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.3%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, meanwhile.
— Sean Conlon
