Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive officer (CEO) of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) speaks to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan in New York City, U.S., April 23, 2024.
Mike Segar | Reuters
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he sees the U.S. economy likely headed to recession as President Donald Trump’s tariffs roil financial markets.
With the trade war between the U.S. and China intensifying, stocks and bonds sold off aggressively again in morning trade. Stock market futures slumped and bond yields spiked amid concerns over financial and economic stability brought on by the tit-for-tat exchange between the two nations.
“I think probably [a recession is] a likely outcome,” Dimon said on Fox Business’ “Mornings With Maria” show.
Recession fears have been rising on Wall Street as the Trump tariffs spur uncertainty about how far the trade war will escalate.
In the latest development, China said it will slap an 84% tariff on all U.S. goods, up 50 percentage points from the previous level, as U.S. reciprocal duties take effect around the world. Dow futures were off more than 800 points while the 10-year Treasury yields soared nearly 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage point.
JPMorgan economists expect U.S. gross domestic product to contract 0.3% this year, a mild recessionary call but coming after a strong year for growth.
“Markets aren’t always right, but sometimes they are right,” Dimon said. “I think this time they are right because they’re just pricing uncertainty [at] the macro level and uncertainty [at] the micro level, at the actual company level, and then how it affects consumer sentiment. It’s hard to tell.”
In the past, Dimon has been a supporter of tariffs.
During a January interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the executive said people should “get over it” regarding tariffs and said a little inflation would be worth it to preserve national security.
On Wednesday, he encouraged the U.S. to make deals with its trading partners while cautioning that market reaction could get worse if that doesn’t happen.
“Take a deep breath, negotiate some trade deals. That’s the best thing they can do,” he said. “I’m taking a calm view. But I think it could get worse if we don’t make some progress here.”
Separately, Dimon encouraged the Senate to confirm Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as vice chair for supervision, the chief overseer of the banking and finance system. Bowman is up for a confirmation hearing Thursday.
Correction: An earlier version contained quotes misattributed to Jamie Dimon.