The roller coaster ride that is the stock market lately is unlikely to come to an end anytime soon, with investors desperate for any clarity on the macroeconomic picture that could put a bottom in for equity prices. Wall Street is headed for a big week ahead, with economic data set to be scrutinized by investors lasering in on any signs of the consumer pulling back, and the Federal Reserve set to have its latest meeting in a time of heightened tariff uncertainty. Elsewhere, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will be in focus as he takes the stage at the GTC developer conference to speak on the future of AI. All this could roil a market already in turmoil. Many investors are questioning whether the S & P 500 joining the Nasdaq Composite in correction territory this week will be the worst of the recent pullback — the two had fallen more than 10% from all-time highs reached just a few short weeks ago — or if President Donald Trump’s willingness to upend relationships with the U.S.’ biggest trade partners could further tip stocks into a bear market . What’s clear, at least, is that volatility will continue to be the norm. “We don’t think that we’ve seen the bottom,” said Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “Volatility will be high, so there could be a little bit more downside before there is clarity from the policy side.” .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Investors will also be keeping an eye on how governments around the world are reacting to Trump’s policies, with Germany, in particular, in focus after the Conservatives’ Friedrich Merz announced a plan to overhaul the national “debt brake” to increase the country’s defense spending. The German 10-year bund was last just below 2.9%, up from around 2.3% just last month. On Friday, stocks bounced off their recent lows , but the major averages nevertheless posted yet another losing week. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched their fourth consecutive week of losses, down more than 2%, each. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst week going back to 2023, off by more than 3%. More recession signs? Over the next several weeks, the stakes are high for incoming economic data reports to show the economy remaining resilient given the recent rumblings of weakness. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey showed heightened worries over inflation, tariffs and a falling stock market; the reading dropped to 57.9 in March, a more than 10% drop from February, and the lowest it’s been since November 2022. The U.S. retail sales report coming Monday could confirm or allay some of the fears recently raised by chief executives during the most recent earnings season. Airline CEOs at American , Delta , and Southwest have cut their first-quarter estimates , warning of slowing domestic travel. Retailers such as Kohl’s and Dick’s Sporting Goods said they expect 2025 will be challenging amid flagging consumer confidence. “The data cycle here in the US is going to be very important,” Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Khanduja said. “We’ve seen some of the survey level data showing the weakness, but we want a little bit more confirmation from harder data, or fundamental data.” Khanduja, who does not hold a recession in his base case, nevertheless said he will watch economic data over the next six to eight weeks to test that thesis. Fed to the rescue? Recently, the idea of a Fed put, in which the central bank will cut to prevent a recession , has grown on Wall Street, especially after the softer consumer and producer price index this week alleviated some worries of sticky inflation. However, others worry the central bank has a challenging decision if it needs to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, when inflation is not yet back at its 2% target. This year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeated that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates, and the Fed is widely telegraphed to hold interest rates steady at the conclusion of its two-day meeting, on March 19. But, investors are going to listen to Powell’s post-meeting comments carefully for any signs that the recent sluggishness in the economy, on top of ongoing uncertainty from the Trump administration, will mean any shifts in monetary policy. The odds of three quarter-point cuts in 2025, up from two previously, have risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “The expectations of Fed rate cuts have … declined over, say, the last six months,” said Thomas Browne, portfolio manager at Keeley Teton Advisors. “And, is that changing with a little better inflation print yesterday, and concerns about what the impact of tariffs could have on the economy.” Nvidia Nvidia will also be in focus in the week ahead, with the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) a possible catalyst for a stock that is in a bear market, more than 20% off its recent highs. According to history, at least, the chances are good the posterchild can rally after the conference, with Wells Fargo finding Nvidia outperformed the SOXX by 6.5 percentage points on average during GTC week, over the last five years. Still, the bar is high for Nvidia to impress investors who will want confirmation that the chipmaker can continue to release new chips, at a faster pace than in the past. Investors will seek details on Nvidia’s next chips called “Rubin,” named after Vera Rubin , the astronomer who discovered dark matter, at the event. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, March 17 8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (March) 8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (February) 10 a.m. Business Inventories (January) 10 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (March) Tuesday, March 18 8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (February) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (February) 9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (February) 9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (February) 9:15 a.m. Manufacturing Production (February) Nvidia GTC on March 17–21, with keynote address March 18. Wednesday, March 19 2 p.m. FOMC Meeting 2 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound Earnings: General Mills Thursday, March 20 8:30 a.m. Current Account (Q4) 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (03/08) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (03/15) 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (March) 8:30 a.m. Existing Home Sales (February) 8:30 a.m. Leading Indicators (February) Earnings: Nike , Micron Technology , Lennar , FedEx , Darden Restaurants Friday, March 21
