Russia plays hard ball over a ceasefire deal as U.S. officials head to Moscow

U.S. negotiators are in Moscow for Ukraine war ceasefire talks on Thursday, but Russia’s willingness to buy into the terms of a temporary truce devised without its input is still in question.

Russia is under pressure to sign up to the White House-brokered 30-day ceasefire agreement, which the U.S. says will show whether the Kremlin is serious about ending the war against Ukraine.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday said the ball was in Russia’s court after he and Ukrainian officials came up with a ceasefire deal earlier in the week. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that it would be financially “devastating” for Russia if it did not agree to a truce, hinting that more sanctions could be imposed on the country if it did not acquiesce.

But the mood music coming out of Moscow on Thursday ahead of the talks was not positive. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov refrained from telling state media whether Russia will reject Trump’s ceasefire deal, but noted that a truce would give Ukraine a chance to boost its forces.

Ushakov said he had conveyed this position to U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz during a call on Wednesday.

“This is nothing else than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian military, nothing more. We believe that our goal is still a long-term peaceful settlement, we are striving for this. A peaceful settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of our country – our concerns,” he said, according to a NBC News translation.

The comments come after a U.S. delegation led by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow for talks on Thursday, the Kremlin confirmed, while tempering expectations as to the possible outcome of the meeting.

“The negotiators are flying in, indeed, contacts are scheduled,” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters Thursday, according to NBC News reporting, adding: “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’ll tell you later. There have already been contacts.”

The Kremlin initially delivered a muted reaction to the ceasefire proposal, asking for more details.

The deal, as laid out in a joint statement, would see all military activities cease and could be extended beyond the initial 30-day term by mutual agreement. The agreement draft also requires “the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children to Russia.”

As part of the plan, the U.S. immediately lifted its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine, as well as military aid.

Russia has already signaled a number of its red lines over any future peace deal, repeatedly stating — including on Thursday — that it will not tolerate the deployment of any foreign troops in Ukraine, or the construction of foreign military bases in the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is yet to comment on the deal and, in the last 24 hours, donned army fatigues to visit the Russian region of Kursk that has been partially-occupied by Ukrainian forces following an incursion last August.

Putin’s rare visit to the frontline was seen a Kremlin demonstration of initiative in the war, with Russia’s forces making steady gains in eastern Ukraine and its defense ministry claiming it will soon retake the entire Kursk region.

Analysts say it will be a struggle for Russia to avoid what Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe Advisor at Teneo, described as a “ceasefire curveball” from Ukraine and the U.S. But they’re also skeptical that Moscow will agree to — or abide by — a ceasefire deal. There have already been some grumblings of discontent in Moscow, with one senior Russian official stating Wednesday that any deal would be on Moscow’s terms, not Washington’s.

“Ukraine retook the initiative by appearing as the willing partner to a ceasefire deal and now how is Putin going to play this?,” Tim Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, said in emailed comments Thursday, adding that “if he fails to agree to a ceasefire he then is revealed as the malign actor … and would risk the wrath of Trump.”

Volodymyr Dubovyk, an academic and analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), commented Wednesday that the Ukrainian-U.S. meeting could be seen as a “breakthrough.”

“The question is: a breakthrough towards what exactly? The main questions remain the same as before the agreement. What will Moscow’s response be? I think that it may play along, pretending that it also wants peace,” he noted Wednesday.

Sam Greene, a Russia expert at CEPA, held that Russia’s agreement to the proposal would not be forthcoming.

“With immediate Russian acquiescence to a ceasefire unlikely to be forthcoming, the White House’s frustration may lead to renewed demands for Ukrainian concessions. Europe, then, must move quickly to help reduce Kyiv’s dependence on Washington, with particular emphasis on intelligence and air defense, thus insulating Ukraine both from Russian attack and American inconsistency,” he said in analysis Wednesday, adding that there is also no “room for complacency when it comes to the Washington-Moscow dynamic.”