U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as investors awaited the latest reading on the consumer price index report.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 5 basis points higher at 4.266%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last 2 basis points higher at 3.92%, after earlier in the day falling to its lowest level since October.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The big economic data releases of the week come in the form of the consumer price index report, due on Wednesday morning, and the producer price index, out Thursday morning. Both readings should shed some light on the health of the U.S. consumer in the wake of recent signs indicating that the economy may be softening.
These readings come ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, which will take place from Tuesday to Wednesday of next week.
“It’ll be really important that we don’t see an upside surprise on CPI because at this point, the Fed does have plenty of dry powder to step in to cut rates and try to boost demand if the economy were to meaningfully slow. But they can only really do that if they feel that inflation expectations and inflation are well anchored,” said Ross Mayfield, investment analyst at Baird.
Earlier on Tuesday, investors were concerned about the possibility of a recession hitting the U.S. economy, after President Donald Trump made remarks over the weekend that the economy is in a “period of transition.”
With the effects of Trump’s newly implemented tariff policies on global trade, and concerns about the gross domestic product declining in the first quarter, the president was asked about the possibility of a recession.
“I hate to predict things like that.” Trump said. “Look, we’re going to have disruption, but we’re OK with that.”
That followed comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told CNBC on Friday that the economy may see a “detox period” as the Trump administration cuts federal spending.
“President Trump and the administration have clearly indicated a tolerance for market pain in the face of their broader goals,” Mayfield added. “At this point I’m still in the camp that we’re not on the doorstep of a recession, but maybe a slowdown or growth scare. Non-recession sell-offs tend to be shorter and milder than the recessionary ones.”
