Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hits 2.6% in January, as expected

Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hits 2.6% in January, as expected


Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hits 2.6% in January, as expected

Inflation eased slightly in January as worries accelerated over President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, according to a Commerce Department report Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, increased 0.3% for the month and showed a 2.5% annual rate.

Excluding food and energy, the core PCE also rose 0.3% for the month and was at 2.6% annually. Fed officials more closely follow the core measure as a better indicator of longer-term trends. The 12-month core measure showed a step down from the upwardly revised 2.9% level in December. Headline inflation eased by 0.1 percentage point.

The numbers all were in line with Dow Jones consensus estimates and likely keep the central bank on hold for the time being regarding interest rates.

Elsewhere in the report, income and spending numbers showed some surprises.

Personal income posted a much sharper increase than expected, up 0.9% on the month against expectations for a 0.4% increase. However, the higher incomes did not translate into spending, which decreased 0.2%, versus the forecast for a 0.1% gain.

The personal savings rate also spiked higher, rising to 4.6%.

Stock market futures pointed higher following the report while Treasury yields were mostly lower.

The report comes as Fed policymakers weigh their next move for interest rates. In recent weeks, officials mostly have expressed hopes that inflation will continue to gravitate lower. However, they have indicated they want more evidence that inflation is headed sustainably back to their 2% goal before they will lower interest rates further.

Goods prices rose 0.5% on the month, pushed by a 0.9% increase in motor vehicles and parts as well as a 2% jump in gasoline. Services increased just 0.2% and housing rose 0.3%.

Following the report, futures traders slightly raised the odds of a June quarter percentage point rate cut, with the market-implied probability now just above 70%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge. Markets expect two cuts by the end of the year, though the odds for a third reduction have risen in recent days.

Though the public more closely follows the consumer price index, released earlier in the month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Fed prefers the PCE measure because it is broader based, adjusts for changes in consumer behavior and places considerably less emphasis on housing costs.

The CPI for January showed an all-items inflation rate of 3% and 3.3% at the core.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO



Source

Some Walmart garment orders from Bangladesh on hold due to U.S. tariff threat: Reuters
World

Some Walmart garment orders from Bangladesh on hold due to U.S. tariff threat: Reuters

Shoppers at the Walmart Supercenter in Burbank during Walmart’s multi-week Annual Deals Shopping Event in Burbank Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024. Allen J. Schaben | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images Suppliers to Walmart have delayed or put on hold some orders from garment manufacturers in Bangladesh, according to three factory owners and correspondence from a […]

Read More
This ‘quiet luxury’ Italian brand is shaking off tariff woes as sales jump
World

This ‘quiet luxury’ Italian brand is shaking off tariff woes as sales jump

Key Points Brunello Cucinelli posted an estimate-beating 10.7% rise in first half sales as the super-rich shrug off tariff concerns. The retailer also pointed to a solid start to July and confirmed its outlook for around 10% sales growth in 2025 and 2026. Analysts, however, expressed doubt over broad-based growth for the beleaguered sector. Soaring […]

Read More
Jamie Dimon has a blunt message for Europe: ‘You’re losing’
World

Jamie Dimon has a blunt message for Europe: ‘You’re losing’

Key Points Jamie Dimon told an event in Ireland on Thursday that Europe was “losing” on competitiveness and lacked the kind of global, successful corporations common in the U.S. The JPMorgan Chase boss also told an event in Ireland that there was “complacency in the markets” around U.S. tariffs and rates. Dimon said he saw […]

Read More