CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia’s earnings are steady — but U.S. consumer confidence is shaky

Nvidia’s revenue in 2024 more than doubled compared with a year earlier, beating analysts’ expectations. Moreover, the company expects sales in the current quarter will continue to grow at a faster rate than Wall Street’s estimates.

Much of that falls upon Nvidia’s new Blackwell artificial intelligence chip, which Big Tech companies are pouring billions into. The chipmaker also downplayed concerns over DeepSeek, saying that more efficient AI models still require plenty of processing power in the long run.

Meanwhile, consumer surveys from the Consumer Board and the University of Michigan show intensifying concerns over the economy and inflation.

That’s culminated in the 10-year Treasury yield passing below that of the 3-month note, causing an “inverted yield curve” — an accepted, and largely accurate, sign of an impending recession within 18 months.

Even as Nvidia is raking in revenue and Big Tech is powering ahead with capex, confidence in the U.S. economy seems to be wobbling slightly. It remains to be seen if tech can stabilize that.

Nvidia beats expectations, provides rosy guidance
Nvidia reported fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday that beat Wall Street expectations. Net income during the quarter rose to $22.09 billion, an 80% jump from the $12.29 billion in same period a year earlier, while quarterly revenue rose 78%. Nvidia also offered guidance for the current quarter that is higher than LSEG estimates. But its rate of growth is slowing — shares fell 1.5% in extended trading. Still, CEO Jensen Huang is confident next-generation AI will need 100 times more compute than older models.

S&P and Nasdaq break losing streak
On Wednesday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite broke their four-day losing streaks. The broad-based index ticked up 0.01% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, fell 0.43%. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose around 0.3% even as Seven & i shares plunged as much as 12% after the company said the founding family had failed to secure the financing needed to buy out the convenience store operator.

Economic announcements at China’s meeting
China will hold its annual parliamentary gathering, known as the “Two Sessions,” starting Tuesday. At the opening meeting, Beijing is expected lower its annual consumer price inflation target to around 2% from 3% or higher in prior years, according to the Asia Society Policy Institute. Analysts also think China will increase its budget deficit, which would allow for more meaningful stimulus measures.

U.S. yield curve inverted
The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading, giving rise to an “inverted yield curve.” It’s seen as a predictor for recessions. In fact, the New York Fed considers it such a reliable indicator that it offers monthly updates on the relationship along with percentage odds on a recession occurring over the next 12 months.

[PRO] Nvidia shares to shake markets
Nvidia’s earnings, which came out after the bell, will have a larger-than-usual effect on the stock market over the next two days, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Two reasons are behind Nvidia’s outsized influence this time.

Modi wants Tesla to build cars in India. Making the plan work may not be easy

India has been hoping that Tesla will set up a manufacturing base in the country. And the carmaker that has appeared reluctant for long is now signaling interest in the market, just as the Indian government attempts to welcome it by implementing a new electric vehicle tariff policy.

India introduced an EV policy last year that proposes to lower the import duties on EVs to 15% from about 70%, with the government set to start accepting applications under this policy before end-March, according to domestic news agency IANS. The EV policy represents a targeted move to appeal to Tesla’s business interests, signaling India’s readiness to support EV manufacturing, Ammar Master, a South Asia director of automotive at GlobalData, told CNBC.