Apple CEO Tim Cook greets former President Barack Obama at the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol Rotunda in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 20, 2025.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson | Getty Images
Apple reports December-quarter earnings Thursday after the bell.
The December quarter is Apple’s largest of the year, partially due to the holiday shopping season and also because it is the first full quarter of new iPhone sales.
While analysts are not worried about the company’s performance in the December quarter, many of them will look for what Apple signals about how its March quarter is shaking out.
Supply chain data points suggest Apple’s sales in China are weakening, and Apple Intelligence, the company’s suite of artificial intelligence features, is not available in Chinese yet.
“Specifically, iPhone 16 demand is not amplified by the introduction of iOS 18 and its Gen AI features. In fact, paradoxically, somehow demand is actually softer,” wrote Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah in a note earlier this month, downgrading Apple to hold. “We’re again looking for iPhone units to decline for the fourth consecutive year.”
Apple does not publish its unit sales, and does not give traditional guidance. New Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh, who assumed the role earlier this month, will likely give investors a few data points on Thursday’s call that analysts can use to estimate earnings per share and revenue for Apple’s March-quarter performance.
LSEG estimates Apple’s revenue will grow on an annual basis at about 3.8% to $124.13 billion. Apple said in October that it expected “low- to mid-single digit” sales growth during the quarter.
One of the biggest things analysts will be watching for is if Apple’s mainland China sales suggest that consumers in the country are shifting their preferences to locally made and designed devices.
“We believe that a major driver of growing competition within the smartphone market is due to growing preference for domestic brands within China,” wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng in a Jan. 23 note.
One bright spot for Apple could be its services business, which includes products ranging from device warranties to the Apple TV+ streaming service. Barclays analysts said in a note earlier this month that services could grow as much as 14% on an annual basis, which could offset lower iPhone sales.
Apple is expected to be questioned over its plan for Trump’s proposed tariffs and its overall AI strategy.
Here is what to expect from Apple in the December quarter, per LSEG consensus estimates:
- Earnings per share: $2.35
- Revenue: $124.13 billion
Analysts are expecting guidance for the March quarter of $1.66 in earnings per share on $95.46 billion in revenue.
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