The Fearless Girl statue outside the New York Stock Exchange on December 18, 2020 in New York City.
Noam Galai | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Martial law declared and lifted in South Korea
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared early Wednesday morning he would lift emergency martial law after the National Assembly voted to overturn Yoon’s decree issued late Tuesday night. Yoon has in recent weeks clashed with the opposition party over 2025’s budget. A coalition of lawmakers from opposition parties are reportedly planning to propose a bill to impeach Yoon on Wednesday.
South Korean markets roiling
South Korean markets opened lower on Wednesday as investors digested the political turmoil. The Kospi lost around 1.6% as South Korean heavyweight stocks like Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor and Korea Gas Corporation stumbled. The won rebounded from earlier steep losses — it plunged to a two-year low against the U.S. dollar — but still ended the day lower against the greenback.
Emergency measures by BOK
In the morning after Yoon’s shocking move, the Bank of Korea said it would boost short-term liquidity and offer special loans to stabilize the country’s financial and foreign exchange markets, as necessary. However, the impact on markets might be “short-lived,” wrote Citi analysts in a note, if there is “proactive policy response.”
Mixed markets
U.S. markets were mixed on Tuesday. The S&P 500 was flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell but the Nasdaq Composite rose. Asia-Pacific markets also traded mixed on Wednesday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.38% as the country’s statistics agency reported that gross domestic product grew a slower-than-expected 0.3% in the three months through September.
[PRO] Opportunities amid France’s political chaos
South Korea aside, France is also facing its own political chaos, as the country’s lawmakers tabled a vote of no-confidence against the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier. That political uncertainty is reverberating through financial markets, giving rise to trading opportunities.
The bottom line
December may have triggered the thawing of Mariah Carey, but stocks are beginning the month chilly.
The S&P 500 was essentially flat and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.17%. The Nasdaq Composite, however, managed to climb 0.4%, thanks to Apple rising 1.3% for a new 52-week high.
It’s unlikely that stocks will remain in permafrost this month.
December’s historically the third-best month of the year, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
The stock market may falter a little at the start of December, writes CNBC’s Bob Pisani, because of tax loss selling – a phenomenon in which investors sell assets that are making a loss to reduce the tax burden on other assets making capital gains. But stocks tend to regain forward momentum as the year wraps up.
“These strong returns are historically often back-end loaded,” said George Smith, portfolio strategist at LPL Financial.
Moreover, in presidential election years, December typically moves up one notch to become the second-best month for stocks.
As Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, noted, “When the market is up 10% or more with a newly elected President, it has never gone down in the month of December.”
Also, investors are likely awaiting the U.S. jobs report for November, out this Friday, before making any major moves. The numbers will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last look at the labor market before their rate-setting meeting from December 17 to 18.
The markets are currently pricing in a 73.8% chance the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points at that meeting, a more optimistic bet than the 59.4% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
If the Fed does cut rates, that incision will probably scrape off any lingering frostbite on the stock market as well, in time for them to hear sleigh bells ringing.
— CNBC’s Bob Pisani, Sarah Min, Hakyung Kim, Sean Conlon, Lisa Kailai Han and Alex Harring contributed to this report.
