Russia and Europe tussle for Moldova, as just over 50% vote ‘yes’ on future EU membership

Moldova’s political destiny was hanging in the balance on Monday after key votes on whether to embrace a future with Europe, or to remain within Russia’s orbit.

Two votes were held in the former Soviet republic over the weekend: one was a presidential election that will now see incumbent and pro-Europe President Maia Sandu face a second round of voting against her euroskeptic rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo. Voters also headed to the polls over a referendum on whether the country should make its pursuit of membership of the European Union (EU) a national goal, enshrined in the country’s constitution.

A slim majority of 50.16% of respondents answered “yes,” according to a provisional count of 98.56% of votes, Moldova’s Central Election Commission said in a video briefing, according to a CNBC translation.

The referendum is the culmination of years of division and uncertainty over whether Moldova should ally its destiny with its Western neighbors, or with Moscow.

Sandwiched between Ukraine to the east and Romania to the west, the mainly agrarian-orientated nation is frequently labeled as one of Europe’s poorest countries. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, it has seesawed between pro-Russia and pro-Europe governments, such as President Sandu’s current administration.

Formal talks on joining the bloc already began in June, but the — non-legally binding — referendum of Sunday was seen as cementing Moldova’s pro-EU trajectory.

The marginal win for the “yes” camp supporting the pro-EU direction of the country could be taken as a sign of indecision and division among the electorate, but Moldova’s leadership accused Russia of conducting a campaign to “buy” votes to sway the results of the presidential election in favor of her pro-Russia rival, and the EU referendum, as it vies to maintain influence over what it sees as its “back yard.”

“Criminal groups, working with foreign forces hostile to our national interests, have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies, and propaganda, using the most disgraceful means to keep our nation trapped in uncertainty and instability,” incumbent President Maia Sandu said in a statement posted on social media platform X.

“We have clear evidence that these criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes – a fraud of unprecedented scale. Their objective was to undermine a democratic process. Their intention is to spread fear and panic in the society,” she added.