
Battery demand for commercial vehicles has been growing, Bernstein says, naming three stocks with over 50% upside potential that it likes. The rapid growth in battery demand for commercial vehicles is thanks in part to falling battery prices, the investment bank’s analysts wrote in an Aug. 15 research note. By the early 2030s, they said, “battery demand for commercial vehicles is on track to be as big as EV demand is today,” they said, adding that demand for batteries used in commercial vehicles is expected to grow by 70% to hit 56 gigawatt-hours this year. While that only accounts for 5% of the global battery market, Bernstein noted that demand is growing more quickly than for EVs. The bank’s analysts estimate that demand for commercial vehicles will reach 460 gigawatt-hours by 2030 — “equivalent to the entire EV market size in 2022.” They named China as a driver, given its electrification of light duty commercial vehicles with lithium iron phosphate batteries. Going forward, Bernstein’s analysts foresee that the number of applications for batteries will “proliferate” as they become cheaper and better. Overweight-rated stocks Among the stocks that Bernstein is betting on is Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, or CATL . The company – which has a market share of over 65% in the commercial vehicle battery industry – “dominates the commercial vehicle battery market,” the bank’s analysts wrote. CATL installed 13 gigawatt-hours of commercial vehicle battery in the first half of the year, exceeding that of peers EVE Energy (2.3 gigawatt-hours) and Gotion High tech (1.1 gigawatt-hours), they noted. Shares in CATL are listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and are traded in the Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (6.8% weighting) and KraneShares MSCI China Clean Technology Index ETF (6.6%). Bernstein has an overweight rating on the stock at a price target of 300 Chinese yuan ($42), giving it potential upside of around 72%. Other stocks it is overweight-rated on include Samsung SDI and LG Chem, both of which are listed on the Korea Exchange and trade as American Depositary Receipts in the U.S. It has a target price of 500,000 Korean won ($373.20) on Samsung SDI and 490,000 Korean won on LG Chem, representing potential upside of 52.2% and 64.4%, respectively. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.