J.M. Smucker ‘s prepare to obtain Twinkies -maker Hostess Models is a risky shift, if Morgan Stanley’s most current investigate is appropriate. The company revisited its August call that a new course of body weight loss medicines would hamper expansion at some foodstuff and beverage firms . This time it backed up its thesis with further demographic info about grocery buyers from Numerator Insights as well as data from the Centers for Illness Manage and Avoidance. The benefits usually are not rosy for Ding Dongs. “Our investigation reinforces the check out that snacking providers this sort of as TWNK are most likely to be most adversely affected by GLP-1 adoption, while weight management foodstuff organizations like SMPL and BRBR could gain,” Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman wrote in a take note to shoppers on Monday. BellRing can make protein shakes and powders and owns the PowerBar manufacturer. Its stock is up a whopping 60% yr to date. But Merely Excellent , which owns models like Atkins and Quest that make completely ready-to-consume shakes, treats and frozen meals, has seen its stock drop almost 15% above the same time interval. In August, Morgan Stanley analysts mentioned they anticipate amplified adoption of GLP-1 medications like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy will guide to a 1.3% drop in calorie use in the U.S. by 2035. The estimate was centered on the notion that people getting the pounds decline medication typically minimize their daily calorie ingestion by 20% to 30% as they slice back on day-to-day foods by 20% and snacks by 40%, the analysts reported. They also assumed at the time that these exact same individuals were more probable to purchase indulgent snacks and packaged meals sold by brands like Smucker, Hostess and other folks. The new report backs this up. “Throughout our coverage, Numerator Insights details highlight that most center-retailer packaged food stuff providers marginally over-index to individuals with weight problems,” Kaufman mentioned. Also, these same food items are the kinds of products that shoppers are possible to slash back again on when they are acquiring severe about losing excess weight, she claimed. The examination confirmed Hostess was the most exposed to buyers with weight problems and style 2 diabetes. Individuals with equally ailments are also most likely to qualify for anti-weight problems medicine, the analysts explained. On Monday, Smucker’s stock was down about 7%, and at just one point hit a 52-7 days lower of $129.00, immediately after it stated it would pay out $5.6 billion to get Hostess in a inventory-and-dollars offer. Hostess stock soared 19% on the news. Other food stuff shares with better publicity to shoppers with obesity contain Conagra , Kraft Heinz and Smucker, the report claimed, citing the Numerator details. “Importantly, BRBR and SMPL about-index to people who are addressing their being overweight by way of life variations and prescription medicine, reinforcing their complementary qualities and prospective class tailwinds from GLP-1 drugs,” the report stated. In Morgan Stanley’s first report, the analysts also emphasized that food and beverage providers could relieve the influence of the pattern by reformulating items to have less calories and sugar or by shifting merchandise mix to much healthier merchandise. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.