As investors deliberate over whether the Federal Reserve can navigate a soft landing, CNBC Pro identified stocks that are cheap even in a recession. Investors are concerned that a raft of growing recessionary signals could mean there is little the Fed can do to avoid a recession next year as it battles inflation. The central bank is widely anticipated to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate hike at next week’s policy meeting. Regardless, investors can use a “margin of safety” to find stocks that could withstand a downturn. The term was popularize by Warren Buffett, who believed investors can buy stocks at a price significantly below their intrinsic value to cushion portfolios. To find stocks that are cheap in a recession scenario, we lowered earnings estimates for the next 12 months on S & P 500 companies by 30%. We then calculated the new forward price-earnings and compared it to the average forward P/E of the stocks over the past five years. Here are the top 20 discounted names based on FactSet data and CNBC Pro’s calculations. The cheapest stock in a recession would be Ford Motor , according to data from FactSet. The automobile manufacturing stock has a recession P/E of 10.6, and a 5-year average forward P/E of 48.7. That represents a discount of 78%. Shares of United Airlines would trade at a recession P/E of 10.7, while its 5-year average forward P/E is 25.1, meaning it would trade at a 57% discount. Recently, Morgan Stanley upgraded shares to overweight from equal weight , saying 2023 could be a “goldilocks” year for the airline. United Airlines could soar more than 50% next year after dealing with a lot of uncertainty during the pandemic, the firm said. United Airlines is not the only airline stock on this list. Other travel names that would be cheap in a recession scenario include Delta Air Lines , which would trade at a 67% discount, and Alaska Air Group , which would be discounted 55%. Shares of Exxon Mobil has a recession P/E of 12.8, while its 5-year average forward P/E is 23.3. That would mean the stock would trade at a 45% discount. In a December note, JPMorgan reiterated an overweight rating on Exxon Mobil, saying it has “the most attractive valuation among US peers and the most defensive dynamics in a downside case.” Other energy stocks made the list. Shares of Chevron would trade at a 43% discount, and Occidental Petroleum would be cheaper by 42%. Other stocks on this list include Charter Communications , CF Industries and Mosaic .
