A vehicle drives through a square beneath a billboard depicting an AI-generated image of the Strait of Hormuz and an effigy of U.S. President Donald Trump, displayed on the wall of a state building in downtown Tehran, Iran, on May 3, 2026.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
Reports of a possible peace deal between Iran and the U.S. are once again raising investors’ hopes and boosting equity markets.
But with few details to go on, the question is whether this moment marks a genuine breakthrough, or just another false dawn.
What you need to know today
The last time this newsletter said that peace could be on the horizon, I came back from the weekend to find that tensions had simply escalated again.
Now, a sense of deja vu has emerged. Axios reported the U.S. and Iran were close to a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would end the war and establish a framework for further nuclear negotiations.
Washington expects responses from Tehran on “several key points” in the next 48 hours, Axios said early Wednesday U.S. time.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi pressed his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday to pursue a diplomatic resolution to the conflict and refrain from resuming hostilities during a meeting in Beijing.
However, U.S. President Donald Trump waded in as well, saying that Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level and intensity than it was before” if the country does not agree to a peace deal.
Oil prices dipped and U.S. stocks climbed in response to the news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching new records at 7,365.12 and 25,838.94 respectively. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged above 62,000 to a record after a holiday, and South Korea’s Kospi also hit a new high in early Asian trading.
U.S. crude futures sank below the $100 mark for the first time since April 28, closing at $95.08 per barrel. International benchmark Brent tumbled nearly 8% to close at $101.27 per barrel.
In the meantime, the energy crisis continues, threatening summer holidays in Asia and Europe as the loss of jet fuel supplies from the Middle East ripples across those regions.
Global jet fuel exports plunged 30% to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down from 1.9 million bpd in the same month last year, according to data from Kpler.
Investors may cheer whispers of peace, but jet fuel shortages and Trump’s threats remind us: volatility isn’t taking a holiday.
— Lim Hui Jie