Tiina Lee, the CEO of Citi U.K., expects global growth to remain resilient this year, telling CNBC that a “recessionary environment” is “not our base case.”
Markets have continued to perform in an orderly way, despite the economic and geopolitical upheaval caused by the Iran conflict, which entered its 60th day on Tuesday, Lee said.
She highlighted a ripening opportunity set across AI, data infrastructure, and energy, coupled with record mergers and acquisitions volumes in the first quarter.
But, speaking with CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday, Lee acknowledged that a deeper and longer conflict remains a live risk for markets and economies.
The war has driven Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel, compared to around $70 in February. If hostilities continue for the remainder of this year and into 2027, the risk is that oil surges towards $120 or $150.
“That’s a different scenario,” Lee said. The global oil benchmark crept up to $111 a barrel in early trading Tuesday.
However, she underscored the resilience in the global economy, particularly within the U.S., and said she expects growth to remain “fairly resilient” for the remainder of 2026, at around 2.7%.
“A recessionary environment is not our base case,” she said.
The U.S. economy’s resilience has been “phenomenal” in the face of prevailing macro headwinds since the start of the year, Lee said, adding that AI has provided a “massive growth spurt”, while also pinpointing opportunities across data infrastructure and energy.
“We are in the middle of the most significant investment cycle in a generation,” she said. “There is a lot to play for.”
She added: “When we speak to CEOs, they’re just as bullish in terms of opportunity for their own companies, and also when opportunities make deep strategic sense, what you’ve seen over the last quarter is that, in spite of those headwinds, we’ve seen record M&A volumes.”
North America is the key export market for multinational companies, Lee said, adding that “the size and scale of that market makes it something you can’t ignore.”
Brent crude.
She said North America remains a key export market for multinational companies, particularly among Chinese firms. “Every single Chinese company, their number one target, in terms of an export market, is North America.”
Chinese companies have made “tremendous progress” in areas such as advanced robotics and manufacturing, Lee added.
She sees opportunities for collaboration, pointing to clean energy, battery production and financial services.
Lee also cited the U.K.’s trade mission to China, and the creation of the UK-China Financial Working Group, as a potential driver.
“The ability to collaborate with markets such as China is really opportunity for the U.K.,” she said