In an aerial view, Marathon Petroleum Corp’s Los Angeles Refinery, one of the largest oil refineries in the North America, operates as gas prices rocket upward due to worldwide oil supply disruptions caused by the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, on March 10, 2026 in Carson, California.
David McNew | Getty Images
Plans to release the largest emergency oil stockpile in history are sending a clear signal: energy markets are preparing for a conflict in the Middle East that may last far longer than initially expected.
The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that its 32 member countries would release 400 million barrels of crude from strategic reserves, the biggest coordinated drawdown since the agency was created in 1974 after an oil crisis the year before. The U.S. separately said it would tap 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the coordinated effort.
Yet crude prices continued to climb even after the announcement, underscoring traders’ skepticism that the measures could quickly offset the massive supply shock caused by the war and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices surged more than 8% with global benchmark Brent crude hitting $100 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate jumped 8.8% to $95 per barrel.
Oil prices year-to-date
“The degree to which the IEA acted is being interpreted by some in the oil market that the conflict could continue for many weeks,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Lipow also noted that the conflict has effectively halted a significant portion of global energy flows.
About 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products transit the Strait of Hormuz each day, equivalent to roughly 20% of global oil consumption.
Even with the massive emergency release, analysts said that strategic reserves can cover only a fraction of the supply loss if the conflict dragged on.
“Traders are now doing the math and realize that IEA drawdowns can at best only offset a fraction of the roughly 15 million barrels per day net supply loss of crude and refined products due to ongoing halt to most tanker transits of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
He said oil prices were likely to keep rising until either a ceasefire or the military degradation of Iran’s attack capabilities occurs, allowing tanker traffic to resume.
Our expectation that this crisis could last for months instead of weeks likely means that markets are underestimating the disruption to global energy markets.
The scale of the release highlighted how seriously policymakers were treating the risk of an oil shortage, said Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee.
“The IEA decision also signals how acute the oil shortage risk is, suggesting the IEA does not believe the war is [likely] to end soon.”
Because those reserves will eventually need to be replenished, the move could also point to higher oil prices even after the conflict subsides, Kavonic added.
Some also believe markets may still be underestimating the potential scale and duration of the crisis, even after the recent price spikes.
“Our expectation that this crisis could last for months instead of weeks likely means that markets are underestimating the disruption to global energy markets,” said Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Should physical shortages emerge, Dhar said prices may have to rise sharply to curb demand, particularly in developing economies.
“Brent oil could surge towards $120 to 150 per barrel to force demand destruction amongst developing economies once physical shortfalls are realized,” he said, adding that prices could rise even further if advanced economies need to set the price for demand destruction.
