Bank of America isn’t forecasting another blockbuster year for the S & P 500 . Savita Subramanian, the bank’s equity and quant strategist, said the benchmark index should rise to 7,100 in 2026. That implies upside of nearly 5% over where the broad average finished Tuesday’s session. “Multiple expansion and earnings growth both pushed the S & P 500 up 15% this year,” Subramanian wrote to clients in a Wednesday note to clients. “In 2026, earnings will do the lift.” Subramanian said earnings should rise 14% next year. But the index’s gains will be capped by a 10-point contraction in price-to-earnings multiples, she said. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 in 2025 In a bear case, the S & P 500 could fall to 5,500, Subramanian said. That represents a decline of around 20% from current levels, which she noted is the typical drop in the event of a U.S. recession. On the other hand, the S & P 500 could surge as high as 8,500 in a bull scenario, Subramanian said. Such a run would equate to a gain of roughly 25% above the index’s current trading levels. Subramanian’s base case would mark a slowdown for the S & P 500 compared with recent history. The S & P 500 surged more than 20% in 2023 and 2024, before climbing around 15% so far this year. On average, the index has jumped about 12% over the last decade.